US Tariff Policies as a Trigger for India’s Strategic Realignment: Implications for Trilateral Dynamics among India, Russia and China

Abstract

This study looks at how the increase in U.S. tariff policies during President Trump’s time in 2025 has served as a trigger for India’s strategic shift in global matters, changing the relationships between India, China, and Russia. The study examines the impact of high tariffs, which can reach as much as 50%, on India's export competitiveness, economic growth, and weaknesses in labor-intensive industries. The text examines the restrictions and tensions within the US-India strategic relationship resulting from tariff-related sanctions connected to India's energy dealings with Russia, suggesting that this economic conflict has pushed India to strengthen its connections with China and Russia for energy and technological exchanges.

Using a comprehensive geopolitical perspective, this paper examines how American protectionism and deal-based trade strategies have encouraged New Delhi to expand its export markets, reinvigorate Eurasian and BRICS initiatives, and focus on its goals of a multi-vector foreign policy rather than sole alignment with the West. The findings underscore the perils associated with excessive dependence on Russian energy resources and Chinese supply chains, while concurrently highlighting opportunities for strategic autonomy and enhanced regional influence within organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS coalition. Recommendations are proposed for policy modifications aimed at fostering robust trade resilience, expanding market diversification, and implementing pragmatic diplomatic initiatives to safeguard India's global interests amidst evolving alliances and intensifying competition among principal powers